Letters to Clients
2025
Fourth Quarter
Markets rarely move in straight lines, and the final months of 2025 were no exception. After a strong run in recent years, the fourth quarter brought a mix of gains and pullbacks as markets adjusted to a more typical rhythm. While volatility resurfaced at times, it did so against a backdrop of continued economic expansion, resilient corporate earnings, and a labor market that remains historically solid.
Third Quarter
The third quarter of 2025 brought a welcome sense of stability after a turbulent first half of the year. Markets entered July on firmer footing, supported by resilient corporate earnings, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin easing monetary policy. In September, the Fed delivered its first rate cut of this cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 0.25%. Although some volatility persists—driven largely by global headlines and uncertainty around trade policy—the broader economy continues to show steady progress.
Second Quarter
If you glanced at the stock market on January 2 and again on June 30, you might assume that very little had happened in between. In reality, the first half of 2025 was anything but quiet. Beneath the surface, there was a storm of volatility, political drama, and economic noise-and yet, long-term investors once again came out steady on the other side.
First Quarter
The first few months of 2025 have reminded us that markets do not move in straight lines. After strong performance in 2023 and 2024, the new year began with heightened volatility. Concerns persist around inflation, shifting expectations for interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions—including tariffs, which has been the predominant issue contributing to the volatility.
2024
Fourth Quarter
The past year was exceptionally strong for diversified investors, driven largely by major technology stocks. However, it is not reasonable to expect the broad equity market to continue to indefinitely compound at nearly 16% per year, as it has done since the lows of the Global Financial Crisis in March 2009, nor do we need it to.
Third Quarter
The United States economy remained relatively steady throughout the third quarter, even though areas like manufacturing and housing experienced challenges. The big news, of course, was the 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This rate cut had been predicted for months and it finally happened. As a result, the bond market got a slight boost, while the S&P 500 climbed almost 6% during the quarter, with investors anticipating additional rate cuts in the coming months.
Second Quarter
The recent months have been very eventful in the markets, our office, our country, and most likely in your life as well. Despite the challenges and continual changes, we, just like you, continue looking and moving forward with confidence and conviction.
First Quarter
As we reflect on the first quarter of 2024, we extend our thanks for your continued partnership and the trust you place in our amazing team. Our unwavering commitment is to keep you informed and appropriately positioned to navigate your long-term financial journey throughout the times of prosperity and struggle, during economic expansion and periods of recession.
2023
Fourth Quarter
The past two years provided a simple and compelling summary of the ongoing behavior of the equity markets. During 2022, the three major indexes of U.S. large companies (the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100) each experienced declines between 21% and 35% as measured from its highest point to its lowest point.
Third Quarter
After a strong start to the first half of the year, equity markets pulled back in the third quarter of 2023. At the same time, bond prices continued to fall due to rising interest rates, which were prompted by stronger-than-expected economic data.
Second Quarter
We are even more delighted than usual to write to you regarding the events of the last six months, and on the further progress of the long-term plan on which we are working together.
First Quarter
During the first quarter, the S&P 500 gained 7.5% and has recovered more than 14% from the most recent low in October of 2022. As you know, the S&P 500 index is not our only indicator of stock market performance, but it is a useful measuring stick at times.
2022
Fourth Quarter
Each time the calendar jumps from one year to another, we stop to reflect on where we are, how we got here, and where we are going from this point. As we reflect, we want to take this opportunity to reinforce some of our enduring principles, which we consider a foundation to our shared success both in the present and in the future.
Third Quarter
Both the equity and bond markets continued to struggle through the third quarter of 2022. The first half of the quarter experienced positive returns before falling to new recent lows during September. Though no “official” recession has been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, it is likely we are in the midst of one.
Second Quarter
The S&P 500 Index suffered its worst performance during the first half of a year since 1970, declining almost 17% during the second quarter, bringing the total decline during the first six months to more than 20%. Beyond the primary index of the largest U.S. companies, essentially all segments of the investment universe performed similarly and were down for the first half.
First Quarter
As the first quarter concluded, we found ourselves engrossed in yet another global crisis. Confronting supply chain issues, inflation, and bitterly partisan politics would have been more than enough to deal with, especially after trudging through the ongoing effects of a multi-year pandemic. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is heavy on our hearts and minds.